Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/257895 
Year of Publication: 
2019
Citation: 
[Journal:] Risks [ISSN:] 2227-9091 [Volume:] 7 [Issue:] 2 [Article No.:] 57 [Publisher:] MDPI [Place:] Basel [Year:] 2019 [Pages:] 1-15
Publisher: 
MDPI, Basel
Abstract: 
In the presence of recovery risk, the recovery rate is a random variable whose risk-neutral expectation can be inferred from the prices of defaultable instruments. I extract market-implied recovery rates from the term structures of credit default swap spreads for a sample of 497 United States (U.S.) corporate issuers over the 2005-2014 period. I analyze the explanatory factors of market-implied recovery rates within a linear regression framework and also within a Tobit model, and I compare them with the determinants of historical recovery rates that were previously identified in the literature. In contrast to their historical counterparts, market-implied recovery rates are mostly driven by macroeconomic factors and long-term, issuer-specific variables. Short-term financial variables and industry conditions significantly impact the slope of market-implied recovery rates. These results indicate that the design of a recovery risk model should be based on specific market factors, not on the statistical evidence that is provided by historical recovery rates.
Subjects: 
recovery rate
credit risk
loss given default
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Creative Commons License: 
cc-by Logo
Document Type: 
Article
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