Bitte verwenden Sie diesen Link, um diese Publikation zu zitieren, oder auf sie als Internetquelle zu verweisen: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/25325 
Kompletter Metadatensatz
DublinCore-FeldWertSprache
dc.contributor.authorHärdle, Wolfgang Karlen
dc.contributor.authorMyšičková, Alenaen
dc.date.accessioned2009-03-19-
dc.date.accessioned2009-07-23T15:15:18Z-
dc.date.available2009-07-23T15:15:18Z-
dc.date.issued2009-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10419/25325-
dc.description.abstractPopulation forecasts are crucial for many social, political and economic decisions. Official population projections rely in general on deterministic models which use different scenarios for future vital rates to indicate uncertainty. However, this technique shows substantial weak points such as assuming absolute correlations between the demographic components. In this paper, we argue that a stochastic projection alternative, with no a priori assumptions provides point forecasts and probabilistic prediction intervals for demographic parameters in addition. Age-sex specific population forecast for Germany is derived through a stochastic population renewal process using forecasts of mortality, fertility and migration. Time series models with demographic restrictions are used to describe immigration, emigration and time varying indices of mortality and fertility rates. These models are then used in the simulation of future vital rates to obtain age-specific population forecast using the cohort-component method. The consequence for the German pension system is discussed. To maintain the actual average pension level the premium rate of the present system rises at least by 50% as the old-age ratio nearly doubles by 2040.en
dc.language.isoengen
dc.publisher|aHumboldt University of Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649 - Economic Risk |cBerlinen
dc.relation.ispartofseries|aSFB 649 Discussion Paper |x2009,009en
dc.subject.jelJ11en
dc.subject.jelJ13en
dc.subject.jelC53en
dc.subject.jelC22en
dc.subject.ddc330en
dc.subject.keywordDemographic forecastingen
dc.subject.keywordpopulation projectionen
dc.subject.keywordstochastic demographyen
dc.subject.stwBevölkerungsprognoseen
dc.subject.stwPrognoseverfahrenen
dc.subject.stwZeitreihenanalyseen
dc.subject.stwStochastischer Prozessen
dc.subject.stwTheorieen
dc.subject.stwAltersstruktur der Bevölkerungen
dc.subject.stwGesetzliche Rentenversicherungen
dc.subject.stwRentenfinanzierungen
dc.subject.stwPrognoseen
dc.subject.stwAlternde Bevölkerungen
dc.subject.stwDeutschlanden
dc.titleStochastic population forecast for Germany and its consequence for the German pension system-
dc.type|aWorking Paperen
dc.identifier.ppn594005213en
dc.rightshttp://www.econstor.eu/dspace/Nutzungsbedingungenen

Datei(en):
Datei
Größe
1.52 MB





Publikationen in EconStor sind urheberrechtlich geschützt.