Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/249692 
Year of Publication: 
2021
Series/Report no.: 
IFS Working Paper No. W21/37
Publisher: 
Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), London
Abstract: 
In this paper we use administrative data from the social security to study income dynamics and income risk inequality in Spain between 2005 and 2018. We construct individual measures of income risk as functions of past employment history, income, and demographics. Focusing on males, we document that income risk is highly unequal in Spain: more than half of the economy has close to perfect predictability of their income, while some face considerable uncertainty. Income risk is inversely related to income and age, and income risk inequality increases markedly in the recession. These findings are robust to a variety of specifications, including using neural networks for prediction and allowing for individual unobserved heterogeneity.
Subjects: 
Spain
income dynamics
administrative data
income risk
inequality
JEL: 
D31
E24
E31
J31
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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