Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/249250
Authors: 
Latour, Chiara
Peracchi, Franco
Spagnolo, Giancarlo
Year of Publication: 
2021
Series/Report no.: 
SITE Working Paper No. 55
Publisher: 
Stockholm School of Economics, Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics (SITE), Stockholm
Abstract: 
We compare different indicators of the spread and consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic, developing a novel method to adjust daily COVID-19 deaths to match weekly excess mortality. Focusing on Sweden, the only country that has good data and did not impose a lockdown, we construct counterfactuals for what would have happened if it had imposed a lockdown, using a synthetic control method. Correcting for data problems and optimizing the synthetic control for each indicator considered, we find stronger effects than previously estimated. Most importantly, studying the ratio of positives to the number of tests, we find that a lockdown would have had sizable effects already after a week. The 3-4 weeks delay highlighted in previous studies appears mainly driven by the large changes in testing frequency that occurred in Sweden during the period considered.
Subjects: 
COVID-19 indicators
excess deaths
COVID-19 deaths
containment policies
lockdown
synthetic control method
Sweden
JEL: 
C4
F6
I18
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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