Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/247546 
Year of Publication: 
2019
Citation: 
[Journal:] Econometrics [ISSN:] 2225-1146 [Volume:] 7 [Issue:] 4 [Publisher:] MDPI [Place:] Basel [Year:] 2019 [Pages:] 1-14
Publisher: 
MDPI, Basel
Abstract: 
Previous findings indicate that the inclusion of dynamic factors obtained from a large set of predictors can improve macroeconomic forecasts. In this paper, we explore three possible further developments: (i) using automatic criteria for choosing those factors which have the greatest predictive power; (ii) using only a small subset of preselected predictors for the calculation of the factors; and (iii) utilizing frequency-domain information for the estimation of the factor models. Reanalyzing a standard macroeconomic dataset of 143 U.S. time series and using the major measures of economic activity as dependent variables, we find that (i) is not helpful, whereas focusing on the low-frequency components of the factors and disregarding the high-frequency components can actually improve the forecasting performance for some variables. In the case of the gross domestic product, a combination of (ii) and (iii) yields the best results.
Subjects: 
dynamic factor models
frequency domain
model selection
shrinkage
targeted predictors
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Creative Commons License: 
cc-by Logo
Document Type: 
Article

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