Bitte verwenden Sie diesen Link, um diese Publikation zu zitieren, oder auf sie als Internetquelle zu verweisen: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/242900 
Erscheinungsjahr: 
2021
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
IFS Working Paper No. W21/01
Verlag: 
Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), London
Zusammenfassung: 
Unique longitudinal probabilistic expectations data from the Berea Panel Study, which cover both college and early post-college periods, are used to examine young adults' beliefs about their future incomes. We introduce a new measure of the ex post accuracy of beliefs, and two new approaches to testing whether, ex ante, agents exhibit Rational Expectations. We show that taking into account the additional information about higher moments of individual belief distributions contained in probabilistic ex-pectations data is important for detecting types of violations of Rational Expectations that are not detectable by existing mean-based tests. Beliefs about future income are found to become more accurate as students progress through school and then enter the post-college period. Tests of Rational Expectations almost always reject for the in-school period, but the evidence against Rational Expectations is much weaker in the post-college period.
Schlagwörter: 
Subjective Expectations
Rational Expectations
Test
Income Uncertainty
JEL: 
D84
Persistent Identifier der Erstveröffentlichung: 
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper

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