Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/239629 
Authors: 
Year of Publication: 
2021
Citation: 
[Journal:] Journal of Risk and Financial Management [ISSN:] 1911-8074 [Volume:] 14 [Issue:] 5 [Publisher:] MDPI [Place:] Basel [Year:] 2021 [Pages:] 1-17
Publisher: 
MDPI, Basel
Abstract: 
Systemic risk, in a complex system with several interrelated variables, such as a financial market, is quantifiable from the multivariate probability distribution describing the reciprocal influence between the system's variables. The effect of stress on the system is reflected by the change in such a multivariate probability distribution, conditioned to some of the variables being at a given stress' amplitude. Therefore, the knowledge of the conditional probability distribution function can provide a full quantification of risk and stress propagation in the system. However, multivariate probabilities are hard to estimate from observations. In this paper, I investigate the vast family of multivariate elliptical distributions, discussing their estimation from data and proposing novel measures for stress impact and systemic risk in systems with many interrelated variables. Specific examples are described for the multivariate Student-t and the multivariate normal distributions applied to financial stress testing. An example of the US equity market illustrates the practical potentials of this approach.
Subjects: 
elliptical conditional probability
stress testing
systemic risk
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Creative Commons License: 
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Document Type: 
Article

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