Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/239267 
Year of Publication: 
2020
Citation: 
[Journal:] Journal of Risk and Financial Management [ISSN:] 1911-8074 [Volume:] 13 [Issue:] 8 [Publisher:] MDPI [Place:] Basel [Year:] 2020 [Pages:] 1-16
Publisher: 
MDPI, Basel
Abstract: 
This paper offers an empirical characterization of the relation between the international price of oil and exchange rates that is both useful and reliable. Our characterization is useful because it rests on information of asset prices that are determined in functioning asset markets. Our characterization is reliable because its maintained assumptions are not rejected by the data. Four features differentiate our work from previous analyses. First, our reliance on bilateral rates opens previously ignored financial arbitrage opportunities between oil prices and exchange rates. Second, our emphasis on statistical testing makes our characterization empirically reliable. Specifically, we use a vector-error correction modeling strategy in which both oil prices and exchange rates are endogenous. This framework allows testing for the existence of an arbitrage relation, for the direction of causality, for parameter constancy, for white noise residuals, and for forecast accuracy. Third our reliance on data through 2020 makes our analysis timely. Fourth, to emphasize the advantages of our approach, we compare our results to those derived for formulations relying on effective exchange-rate indexes.
Subjects: 
real effective exchange rate
China
cointegration
forecasts
oil prices
renminbi
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Creative Commons License: 
cc-by Logo
Document Type: 
Article

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