Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/238101 
Year of Publication: 
2021
Series/Report no.: 
Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies Working Paper No. HEIDWP10-2021
Publisher: 
Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, Geneva
Abstract: 
Using data for the Ukrainian economy, we applied and adapted the growth-at-risk (GaR) framework to examine the association between financial conditions, credit and sectors' activity, and external conditions and the probability distribution of GDP growth in Ukraine. We applied CSA and PCA approaches to construct indices of these partitions. We further derived GDP growth distributions and explored their behavior under different scenarios. Results from the model with PCA indices suggest that the relationships between financial conditions as well as external conditions indices and economic activity are inverse regardless of quantile of GDP distribution. Moreover, we found that the financial conditions index has the largest effect on the GDP growth on the lower quantiles, which could generate significant downside risk to the economy.
Subjects: 
quantile regression
economic growth
GDP
principal component analysis
GDP growth distribution
JEL: 
C31
C53
E17
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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