Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/237185 
Year of Publication: 
2019
Citation: 
[Journal:] Financial Innovation [ISSN:] 2199-4730 [Volume:] 5 [Issue:] 1 [Publisher:] Springer [Place:] Heidelberg [Year:] 2019 [Pages:] 1-16
Publisher: 
Springer, Heidelberg
Abstract: 
Forecasting stock market returns is one of the most effective tools for risk management and portfolio diversification. There are several forecasting techniques in the literature for obtaining accurate forecasts for investment decision making. Numerous empirical studies have employed such methods to investigate the returns of different individual stock indices. However, there have been very few studies of groups of stock markets or indices. The findings of previous studies indicate that there is no single method that can be applied uniformly to all markets. In this context, this study aimed to examine the predictive performance of linear, nonlinear, artificial intelligence, frequency domain, and hybrid models to find an appropriate model to forecast the stock returns of developed, emerging, and frontier markets. We considered the daily stock market returns of selected indices from developed, emerging, and frontier markets for the period 2000-2018 to evaluate the predictive performance of the above models. The results showed that no single model out of the five models could be applied uniformly to all markets. However, traditional linear and nonlinear models outperformed artificial intelligence and frequency domain models in providing accurate forecasts.
Subjects: 
Financial markets
Stock returns
Linear and nonlinear
Forecasting techniques
Root mean square error
JEL: 
C22
C53
G15
G17
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Creative Commons License: 
cc-by Logo
Document Type: 
Article

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