Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/228213
Authors: 
Martínez-Martín, Jaime
Morris, Richard
Onorante, Luca
Piersanti, Fabio M.
Year of Publication: 
2019
Series/Report no.: 
ECB Working Paper No. 2335
Abstract: 
The post-crisis environment has posed important challenges to standard forecasting models. In this paper, we exploit several combinations of a large-scale DSGE structural model with standard reduced-form methods such as (B)VAR (i.e. DSGE-VAR and Augmented-(B)VARDSGE methods) and assess their use for forecasting the Spanish economy. Our empirical findings suggest that: (i) the DSGE model underestimates growth of real variables due to its mean reverting properties in the context of a sample that is difficult to deal with; (ii) in spite of this, reduced-form VARs benefit from the imposition of an economic prior from the structural model; and (iii) pooling information in the form of variables extracted from the structural model with (B)VAR methods does not give rise to any relevant gain in terms of forecasting accuracy.
Subjects: 
Bayesian VAR
DSGE models
real time data
forecast comparison
JEL: 
C54
E37
F3
F41
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
ISBN: 
978-92-899-3904-1
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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