Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/225083
Authors: 
Foltas, Alexander
Pierdzioch, Christian
Year of Publication: 
2020
Series/Report no.: 
Working Papers of the Priority Programme 1859 "Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour" 22
Abstract: 
We study the efficiency of growth and inflation forecasts published by three leading German economic research institutes during a period of time ranging from 1970 to 2017. To this end, we examine whether the information used by the research institutes when they formed their forecasts helps to explain the ex-post realized forecast errors. We identify the information that the research institutes used to set up their quantitative forecasts by applying computational-linguistics techniques to decompose the business-cycle reports published by the research institutes into various topics. Our results show that several topics have predictive value for the forecast errors.
Subjects: 
Growth forecasts
Inflation forecasts
Forecast efficiency
Business-cycle reports
JEL: 
C53
E32
E37
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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