Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/216406 
Year of Publication: 
2020
Series/Report no.: 
IZA Discussion Papers No. 13094
Publisher: 
Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), Bonn
Abstract: 
We model the evolution of the number of individuals that are reported to be sick with COVID-19 in Germany. Our theoretical framework builds on a continuous time Markov chain with four states: healthy without infection, sick, healthy after recovery or after infection but without symptoms and dead. Our quantitative solution matches the number of sick individuals up to the most recent observation and ends with a share of sick individuals following from infection rates and sickness probabilities. We employ this framework to study inter alia the expected peak of the number of sick individuals in a scenario without public regulation of social contacts. We also study the effects of public regulations. For all scenarios we report the expected end of the CoV-2 epidemic.
Subjects: 
Germany
Markov model
spread of infection
SARS-CoV-2
COVID-19
Corona
projection
JEL: 
I18
E17
C63
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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