Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/213059
Authors: 
Plogmann, Jana
Mußhoff, Oliver
Odening, Martin
Ritter, Matthias
Year of Publication: 
2018
Series/Report no.: 
FORLand-Working Paper No. 05 (2018)
Abstract: 
The price increases on agricultural land markets in the last decade have triggered a debate about land as an attractive investment opportunity for agricultural and non-agricultural investors. In a static environment, the rent-price ratio provides a first indicator of the profitability of an investment in land. In this paper, we apply the dynamic Gordon growth model to Western Germany and decompose the rent-price ratio into the expected present values of rental growth rates, real interest rates, and a land premium, i.e., the excess return on investment. This analysis reveals that the recent price surge on agricultural land markets was not unprecedented; that the land market rent-price ratio is rather low compared to other markets and varies considerably among federal states; and that (expected) premia for land are mostly negative, rendering investments in farmland unprofitable for financial investors. Finally, we find that changing expected present values of returns on land investments are the major driver for land price volatility.
Subjects: 
Agricultural land market
rent-price ratio
Campbell-Shiller decomposition
dynamic Gordon growth model
JEL: 
C32
G12
Q15
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Creative Commons License: 
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/de/
Document Type: 
Working Paper

Files in This Item:
File
Size





Items in EconStor are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.