Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/212739 
Authors: 
Year of Publication: 
2012
Series/Report no.: 
BOFIT Discussion Papers No. 15/2012
Publisher: 
Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT), Helsinki
Abstract: 
This study examines the forecasting power of confidence indicators for the Russian econ-omy. ARX models are fitted to the six confidence or composite indicators, which were then compared to a simple benchmark AR-model. The study used the output of the five main branches as the reference series. Empirical evidence suggests that confidence indica-tors do have forecasting power. The power is strongly influenced by the way which the in-dicator is constructed from the component series. The HSBC Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), the OECD Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) and the OECD Business Confidence Indicator (BCI) were the best performers in terms of both the information criterion and forecasting accuracy.
Subjects: 
confidence indicators
forecasting
Russia
JEL: 
E37
P27
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
ISBN: 
978-952-462-746-7
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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