Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/210034
Authors: 
Mirkov, Nikola
Natvik, Gisle James
Year of Publication: 
2013
Series/Report no.: 
Working Paper No. 2013/11
Abstract: 
If central banks value the ex-post accuracy of their forecasts, previously announced interest rate paths might affect the current policy rate. We explore whether this "forecast adherence" has influenced the monetary policies of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the Norges Bank, the two central banks with the longest history of publishing interest rate paths. We derive and estimate a policy rule for a central bank that is reluctant to deviate from its forecasts. The rule can nest a variety of interest rate rules. We find that policymakers appear to be constrained by their most recently announced forecasts.
Subjects: 
Taylor rule
interest rates
forecasts
adherence
JEL: 
E43
E52
E58
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
ISBN: 
978-82-7553-745-2
Creative Commons License: 
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/deed.no
Document Type: 
Working Paper
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