Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/180761 
Authors: 
Year of Publication: 
2016
Citation: 
[Journal:] Wirtschaftsdienst [ISSN:] 1613-978X [Volume:] 96 [Issue:] 4 [Publisher:] Springer [Place:] Heidelberg [Year:] 2016 [Pages:] 253-257
Publisher: 
Springer, Heidelberg
Abstract: 
Prognosen werden mehrfach revidiert - von den ersten vorwiegend theoriebasierten über spätere in zunehmenden Maße von den Daten bestimmten Erstellungen bis zur Veröffentlichung der Volkswirtschaftlichen Gesamtrechnungen des Statistischen Bundesamtes. In dieser Zeit ändern sich nicht nur die nackten Zahlen, sondern auch die Vorstellungen über die augenblicklich vorherrschenden konjunkturellen Triebkräfte. Für das Jahr 2015 gibt der Autor einen Überblick, welche Wandlungen die Prognosen im Laufe der Zeit erfahren haben, und darüber, welche Faktoren schließlich zu Änderungen der Prognosen geführt haben. Dabei zeigt sich, dass die Prognostiker einige Überraschungen erlebten, dass sie aber grundsätzlich gar nicht so falsch lagen.
Abstract (Translated): 
When publishing short term forecasts, economists have to reveal their beliefs, e.g. on the duration, shape, and driving forces of business cycles. Against this background, this article analyses the forecasts for 2015 provided by 15 national and international institutions for Germany. In all forecasts, expected GDP growth did not deviate very much from the provisional figure published in January 2016. In a short period in autumn 2014, forecasts were revised downward, owing in particular to a considerable downward revision of investment in equipment. The GDP forecasts thereafter returned to their initial value, now driven by private consumption which benefi tted from the decline of oil prices. As expected, GDP was driven by domestic demand, but net exports unexpectedly also contributes positively to growth. Interestingly, forecasts of export growth remained quite robust with respect to changes in world trade forecasts. Another interesting feature is that investment in equipment did not play the expected role as a driver of the business cycle. Finally, private consumption grew almost as expected, but more than likely for other reasons than assumed in the first forecasts.
JEL: 
E17
E37
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Document Type: 
Article
Document Version: 
Published Version

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