Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/175980
Authors: 
Soares, Lacir J.
Medeiros, Marcelo C.
Year of Publication: 
2005
Series/Report no.: 
Texto para discussão 495
Abstract: 
The goal of this paper is to develop a forecasting model of the hourly electricity load demand in the area covered by an utility company located in the southeast of Brazil. A di®erent model is constructed for each hour of day, thus there are 24 di®erent models. Each model is based on a decomposition of the daily series of each hour in two components. The ¯rst component is purely deterministic and is related to trends, seasonality, and special days e®ect. The second one is stochastic and follows a linear autoregressive model. The multi-step forecasting performance of the proposed methodology is compared with a benchmark model and the results indicate that our proposal is a useful tool for electricity load forecasting.
Document Type: 
Working Paper
Social Media Mentions:

Files in This Item:
File
Size
601.03 kB





Items in EconStor are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.