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Belke, Ansgar
Dreger, Christian
Dubova, Irina
Year of Publication: 
Series/Report no.: 
ROME Discussion Paper Series 16-05
The financial crisis led to a deep recession in many industrial countries. However, the downturn in large emerging markets turned out to be less persistent. Despite the modest recovery in advanced economies, GDP growth declined in emerging markets in the last years. The higher divergence of business cycles is closely linked to the Chinese transformation. During the crisis, the Chinese fiscal stimulus prevented a decline in GDP growth not only in that country, but also in resource-rich economies. The Chinese shift to consumption-driven growth led to a decline in commodity demand, and the environment became more challenging for many emerging markets. This view is supported by Bayesian VARs specified for the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) countries. The results reveal a strong impact of international variables on GDP growth. In contrast to the other countries, China plays a crucial role in de-termining global trade and oil prices. Hence, the change in the Chinese growth strategy puts additional reform pressure on countries with abundant natural resources.
business cycle divergence
Chinese transformation
Bayesian VARs
Document Type: 
Working Paper
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