Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/154204
Authors: 
Checherita-Westphal, Cristina
Klemm, Alexander
Viefers, Paul
Year of Publication: 
2015
Series/Report no.: 
ECB Working Paper 1771
Abstract: 
This paper considers the impact of changes in governments' payment discipline on the private sector. We argue that increased delays in public payments can affect private sector liquidity and profits and hence ultimately economic growth. We test this prediction empirically for European Union countries using two complementary approaches. First, we use annual panel data, including a newly constructed proxy for government arrears. Using panel data techniques, including methods that allow for endogeneity, we find that payment delays and to some extent estimated arrears lead to a higher likelihood of bankruptcy, lower profits, and lower economic growth. While this approach allows a broad set of variables to be included, it restricts the number of time periods. We therefore complement it with a Bayesian VAR approach on quarterly data for selected countries faced with significant payment delays. With this second approach, we also find that the likelihood of bankruptcies rises when the governments increase the average payment period.
Subjects: 
accounts payable
government arrears
government spending
public payment delays
JEL: 
E6
H6
H8
ISBN: 
978-92-899-1584-7
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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