Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/149622
Authors: 
Felix, Luiz
Kräussl, Roman
Stork, Philip
Year of Publication: 
2017
Series/Report no.: 
CFS Working Paper Series 566
Abstract: 
This paper investigates whether the overpricing of out-of-the money single stock calls can be explained by Tversky and Kahneman's (1992) cumulative prospect theory (CPT). We argue that these options are overpriced because investors overweight small probability events and overpay for such positively skewed securities, i.e., characteristics of lottery tickets. We match a set of subjective density functions derived from risk-neutral densities, including CPT with the empirical probability distribution of U.S. equity returns. We find that overweighting of small probabilities embedded in CPT explains on average the richness of out-of-the money single stock calls better than other utility functions. The degree that agents overweight small probability events is, however, strongly timevarying and has a horizon effect, which implies that it is less pronounced in options of longer maturity. We also find that time-variation in overweighting of small probabilities is strongly explained by market sentiment, as in Baker and Wurgler (2006).
Subjects: 
Cumulative prospect theory
Market sentiment
Risk-neutral densities
Call options
JEL: 
G02
G12
Document Type: 
Working Paper

Files in This Item:
File
Size





Items in EconStor are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.