Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/145864 
Authors: 
Year of Publication: 
2016
Series/Report no.: 
Beiträge zur Jahrestagung des Vereins für Socialpolitik 2016: Demographischer Wandel - Session: Forecasting and Information Transmission No. B01-V3
Publisher: 
ZBW - Deutsche Zentralbibliothek für Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Leibniz-Informationszentrum Wirtschaft, Kiel und Hamburg
Abstract: 
In this paper we reexamine the relative role of soft and hard data in terms of short-term GDP forecasting. We employ mixed frequency models (MF-VARS) and real-time data to investigate the relative role of survey data relative to industrial production and orders in Germany. Special emphasis is given to the real-time data flow of surveys, production and orders. Although we find evidence that the forecast characteristics based on real-time and final data releases differ, we see only little impact on the relative forecasting performance of indicator models. However, when it comes to optimally combine soft and hard data, the use of final release data may understate the relative role of survey information.
JEL: 
C53
E37
C32
Document Type: 
Conference Paper

Files in This Item:
File
Size





Items in EconStor are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.