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van Soest, Heleen
Reis, Lara Aleluia
van Vuuren, Detlef
Bertram, Christoph
Drouet, Laurent
Jewell, Jessica
Kriegler, Elmar
Luderer, Gunnar
Riahi, Keywan
Rogelj, Joeri
Tavoni, Massimo
den Elzen, Michel
Awasthy, Aayushi
Calvin, Katherine
Capros, Pantelis
Clarke, Leon
Colombier, Michel
Fei, Teng
Garg, Amit
Guedes, Fernanda
Imperio, Mariana
Kainuma, Mikiko
Kejun, Jiang
Köberle, Alexandre C.
Kolp, Peter
Krey, Volker
Kitous, Alban
Leonidas, Paroussos
Lucena, Andre
Masui, Toshihiko
Nogueira, Larissa
Pierfederici, Roberta
Saveyn, Bert
Schaeffer, Roberto
Sha, Fu
Shoai, Bianka
Shukla, P.R.
Spencer, Thomas
Szklo, Alexandre
Waisman, Henri
Nota di Lavoro No. 110.2015
Governments worldwide have agreed that international climate policy should aim to limit the increase of global mean temperature to less than 2oC with respect to pre-industrial levels. The purpose of this paper is to analyse the emission reductions and related energy system changes in various countries in pathways consistent with the 2oC target. We synthesize and provide an overview of the national and regional information contained in different scenarios from various global models published over the last few years, as well as yet unpublished scenarios submitted by modelling teams participating in the MILES project (Modelling and Informing Low-Emission Strategies). We find that emissions in the mitigation scenarios are significantly reduced in all regions compared to the baseline without climate policies. The regional cumulative CO2 emissions show on average a 76% reduction between the baseline and 450 scenario. The 450 scenarios show a reduction of primary energy demand in all countries of roughly 30-40% compared to the baseline. In the baseline scenario, the contribution of low-carbon energy technology remains around 15%, i.e. similar as today. In the mitigation scenario, these numbers are scaled up rapidly towards 2050. Looking at air quality, sulphur dioxide and black carbon emissions are strongly reduced as a co-benefit of greenhouse gas emission reductions, in both developing and developed countries. However, black carbon emissions increase in countries that strongly rely on bioenergy to reach mitigation targets. Concerning energy security, energy importing countries generally experience a decrease in net-energy imports in mitigation scenarios compared to the baseline development, while energy exporters experience a loss of energy export revenues.
Climate policy
Global and national policy comparison
Working Paper

2.09 MB

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