Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/126585
Authors: 
Kriwoluzky, Alexander
Müller, Gernot J.
Wolf, Martin
Year of Publication: 
2015
Series/Report no.: 
IWH Discussion Papers 18/2015
Abstract: 
We study the impact of the interaction between fiscal and monetary policy on the low-frequency relationship between the fiscal stance and inflation using cross-country data from 1965 to 1999. In a first step, we contrast the monetary-fiscal narrative for Germany, the U.S. and Italy with evidence obtained from simple regression models and a time-varying VAR. We find that the low-frequency relationship between the fiscal stance and inflation is low during periods of an independent central bank and responsible fiscal policy and more pronounced in times of high fiscal budget deficits and accommodative monetary authorities. In a second step, we use an estimated DSGE model to interpret the low-frequency measure structurally and to illustrate the mechanisms through which fiscal actions affect inflation in the long run. The findings from the DSGE model suggest that switches in the monetary-fiscal policy interaction and accompanying variations in the propagation of structural shocks can well account for changes in the low-frequency relationship between the fiscal stance and inflation.
Subjects: 
currency union
exit
sovereign debt crisis
fiscal policy
redenomination premium
euro crisis
regime-switching model
JEL: 
E52
E62
F41
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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