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Erscheinungsjahr: 
2015
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper No. 15-104/VI/DSF95
Verlag: 
Tinbergen Institute, Amsterdam and Rotterdam
Zusammenfassung: 
We investigate the relationship between the gas spot market and the price of gas storage capacity. Contrary to the common belief, the auction prices for gas storage are mostly affected by the volatility of current market prices rather than by the winter-summer price differences. This paper provides a numerical solution for pricing storage capacity, by taking investor's activities through the spot market and storage service into account. A bivariate Generalized Autoregressive Score (GAS) model is employed for modeling the dynamics of the day-ahead and month-ahead spot market prices, as well as the time-varying volatilities and correlations. Under an incomplete market setting, our model is able to approximate the realized auction prices. Moreover, one interesting implication is that the implied average risk aversion of investor for a storage contract increases with the volatility of the spot market. This is an intuitive result because storage capacity can serve as an effective hedging product for the spot market, and the demand for this product is high when the market becomes risky: more risk averse investors are participating in the auctions. Moreover, a sensitivity analysis on different injection/withdrawal rates is also included, and particularly, contracts with higher capacity rates are priced at a higher level.
Schlagwörter: 
stochastic volatility
Generalised Autoregressive Score modeling
incomplete markets
real options
utility indifference pricing
gas storage
capacity constraints
JEL: 
C61
C63
G12
G13
Q41
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper
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