53rd Congress of the European Regional Science Association: "Regional Integration: Europe, the Mediterranean and the World Economy", 27-31 August 2013, Palermo, Italy
The regional growth potential, which frequently appears in economic analyses, is notoriously difficult to handle in practice. Estimation of growth potentials for development forecasting and strategic planning remains actual and meaningful, which is especially true for long-term predictions of structural shifts in the economy, both at national and regional level. The Regional Input-Output (RIO) model has been a powerful tool in applications of the industrial interdependence, impact analysis and policy strategies. Also the RIO model can be attempted to identify leading industries through linkage effects. The backward and forward linkages for the sectors in a single economy provide a mechanism for identifying key or leading sectors in the economy. In this study, we try to identify the leading industries by the RIO model along with non-survey techniques to explore growth potentials. The estimated multipliers which represent the backward linkage are compared with the survey based benchmarks through the rank correlation coefficients.
Growth potential Input-Output model Location quotients Non-survey techniques Leading industries