Working Paper, School of Economics and Finance, Queen Mary, University of London 752
We use a factor model with stochastic volatility to decompose the time-varying variance of Macro economic and Financial variables into contributions from country-specific uncertainty and uncertainty common to all countries. We find that the common component plays an important role in driving the time-varying volatility of nominal and financial variables. The cross-country co-movement in volatility of real and financial variables has increased over time with the common component becoming more important over the last decade. Simulations from a two-country DSGE model featuring Epstein Zin preferences suggest that increased globalisation and trade openness may be the driving force behind the increased cross-country correlation in volatility.
FAVAR Stochastic Volatility Uncertainty Shocks DSGE Model