Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/121473
Authors: 
Duttle, Kai
Shichijo, Tatsuhiro
Year of Publication: 
2015
Series/Report no.: 
Duisburger Arbeitspapiere Ostasienwissenschaften 103/2015
Abstract: 
This experimental study measures three types of overconfidence in the decision behavior of participants from Germany and Japan. In the first stage of the experiment subjects completed a Raven Progressive Matrices test and subsequently assessed their test performance in absolute and relative terms. During the second stage subjects provided probability forecasts by confidence intervals to artificially generated price paths. Furthermore subjects´ better-than-average bias was assessed during a post-experimental questionnaire. We find that monetary incentives as a reason to honestly self-evaluate reduce cultural differences in overplacement and in overestimation of own performance. Over-precision in probability judgment accuracy on the other hand significantly differed across ethnical groups. To analyze national identity priming effects on overconfidence, a pre-experimental questionnaire made this identity salient to a randomly selected treatment group. Previous studies found that primes of certain identities can trigger behavior that is consistent with the stereotypes associated with that identity, but can also cause psychological reactance leading to counter-stereotypical behavior. We find that in a setting where there are no incentives to provide honest performance self-evaluations the identity prime reinforces behavior consistent with a default strategy which helps adapting to social norms. In incentivized decisions on the other hand the prime causes counter-stereotypical self-perception. Reasons for this phenomenon are discussed.
Subjects: 
overconfidence
interval estimates
identity priming
culture
stereotype effect
JEL: 
C91
G02
F00
Document Type: 
Working Paper

Files in This Item:
File
Size
364.87 kB





Items in EconStor are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.