Fernández, Matías Mayor Menéndez, Ana Jesús López Suárez, Rigoberto Pérez
Year of Publication:
44th Congress of the European Regional Science Association: "Regions and Fiscal Federalism", 25th - 29th August 2004, Porto, Portugal
The analysis of different economic situations and risk factors is necessary in order to properly define forecasting scenarios. In this paper we focus on the shift-share model as a useful tool in the definition of economic scenarios, based on the different components that contribute to the change of a given economic magnitude (the so called national, sectoral and competitive effects). Although the most commonly used methodology is based on the “constant shift” and the “constant share” hypotheses, additional options can be considered based on the expected behaviour of the competitive effect, thus leading to more realistic scenarios. Once these new options are developed, this approach is applied to the definition of scenarios for the future evolution of the regional employment.