38th Congress of the European Regional Science Association: "Europe Quo Vadis? - Regional Questions at the Turn of the Century", 28 August - 1 September 1998, Vienna, Austria
This paper presents a dynamic forecast model at county level giving special attention to the level of education, skills etc. Firms demand for labour are determined endogenously at the sectorial level, and divided into demand by education. Peoples supply of labour by are determined by the present distribution of education by age and sex. On the demand side forecasts are made by use of the regional model EMIL, and matched with forecasts made from the supply side. These are based on a simple dynamic labour force growth model. On both sides' data are decomposed into education levels by use of detailed input-output tables, and panel statistics. Excess demand or supply is then modelled using a learning function based on a relation between the >strength< in supplies struggles for a job in a given educational group, and the relative change in labour supply. The model is applied on data for a rural region in Denmark, i.e. the county of South Jutland, and forecasts are made for the period up to 2010.