Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/106262
Authors: 
Croonenbroeck, Carsten
Ambach, Daniel
Year of Publication: 
2014
Series/Report no.: 
Discussion Paper, European University Viadrina, Department of Business Administration and Economics 362
Abstract: 
We investigate the importance of taking the spatial interaction of turbines inside a wind park into account. This article provides two tests that check for wake effects and thus, take spatial interdependence into account. Those effects are suspected to have a negative influence on wind power production. Thereafter, we introduce a new modeling approach that is based on the Generalized Wind Power Prediction Tool (GWPPT) and therefore respects both-sided censoring of the data. Furthermore, the new model takes a Spatial Lag Model (SLM) specification into account and allows for random effects in the panel data. Finally, we provide a short empirical study that compares the forecasting accuracy of our model to the established models WPPT, GWPPT, and the naïve persistence predictor. We show that our new model provides significantly better forecasts than the established models.
Subjects: 
Spatial Lag Model
Censored
Regression
Wind Power
Forecasting
Random Effects
JEL: 
C31
C34
E27
Q47
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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