Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/105874
Authors: 
Stephan, Sabine
Year of Publication: 
2005
Series/Report no.: 
IMK Working Paper 6/2005
Abstract: 
This paper analyses the determinants of German exports to the euro area, which is by far the biggest market for German products. Four conditional error-correction models based on regionally disaggregated data are developed. One specification includes EMU industrial production and a real external value based on consumer prices, the other three use different EMU investment aggregates, the corresponding real external values and a proxy for European market integration to explain exports. The models perform equally well in a number of diagnostic tests. For short-term forecasts, however, the model using industrial production seems to be the best, since it outperforms the other models in terms of one-step ahead out-of-sample forecasts. Furthermore, the explanatory variables of this equation (industrial production and consumer prices) are easier to forecast than investment aggregates and the corresponding prices.
Subjects: 
Export Function
Income and Price Elasticity of Exports
Intra-EMU Trade
Error Correction Model
Forecasting
JEL: 
C22
C52
F47
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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