In this paper we study the dynamics of smallholder participation in export value chains focusing on the example of small-scale broccoli producers in the highlands of Ecuador. A double hurdle model and a multi-spell cox duration model are used to explain the extent of participation and the hazards of dropping out of the export chain. The empirical results suggest that small farmers' withdrawal from the export sector is in fact accelerated by hold-ups experienced in the past and that family ties play an important role in farmers' marketing decisions. Negative external shocks - such as the bankruptcy of the main buyer in our case study - represent a major threat towards the sustainability of smallholder farmer inclusion in high-value chains, because farmer organizations often possess low resilience towards such events.
horticultural export chains small farmers duration model double hurdle model transaction risks