Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
Hebous, Shafik
Zimmermann, Tom
Year of Publication: 
Series/Report no.: 
Beiträge zur Jahrestagung des Vereins für Socialpolitik 2014: Evidenzbasierte Wirtschaftspolitik - Session: Empirical Macro - Time Variation and Structural Identification No. C07-V1
We re-examin the notion of identifying macroeconomic effects using the narrative approach taking as an application the estimation of tax multipliers. We point out to a test for the checking the adequacy of regressing the narrative measure directly on the outcome variable. This test straightforwardly reconciles the reduced form narrative approach with the instrumental variable approach. We consider estimating tax multipliers using six different recently published narrative tax series. The results of our test suggest that none of the considered measures can be regressed directly on output growth. This finding entails questioning the exogeneity of these variables or, in case that exogeneity is maintained, rethinking the appropriate specification. We argue in favor of using an IV procedure and correcting the confidence bands for the weak instrument problem.
Document Type: 
Conference Paper

Files in This Item:

Items in EconStor are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.