Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/100393
Authors: 
Drechsel, Katja
Giesen, Sebastian
Lindner, Axel
Year of Publication: 
2014
Series/Report no.: 
Beiträge zur Jahrestagung des Vereins für Socialpolitik 2014: Evidenzbasierte Wirtschaftspolitik - Session: Macroeconomic Forecasts E14-V2
Abstract: 
This study analyzes the performance of the IMF World Economic Outlook forecasts for world output and the aggregates of both the advanced economies and the emerging and developing economies. With a focus on the forecast for the current and the next year, we examine whether IMF forecasts can be improved by using leading indicators with monthly updates. Using a real-time dataset for GDP and for the indicators we nd that some simple single-indicator forecasts on the basis of data that are available at higher frequency can signi cantly outperform the IMF forecasts if the publication of the Outlook is only a few months old.
JEL: 
C52
C53
E37
Document Type: 
Conference Paper

Files in This Item:
File
Size





Items in EconStor are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.