Schettini, Bernardo Patta dos Santos, Cláudio Hamilton Matos Amitrano, Cláudio Roberto Squeff, Gabriel Coelho Ribeiro, Márcio Bruno Gouvêa, Raphael Rocha Orair, Rodrigo Octávio Martinez, Thiago Sevilhano
Year of Publication:
Texto para Discussão No. 1614
Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA), Brasília
This paper presents new econometric specifications for the quarterly behavior of the aggregate consumption of Brazilian households in the 1995-2009 period. It is argued, in particular, that the use of quarterly measures of both private disposable income (in chained 1995 prices) and the credit extended to households (as a % of GDP) as explanatory variables leads to well adjusted models within the sample with good out of sample performance - for the level of precision of our quarterly estimates four quarters out of sample is close to 99%. Moreover, the models presented in this paper point to values of the (approximated) private income elasticity close to 0.4 and credit and interest (semi) elasticities of household consumption close to 2% and -2%, respectively.