Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/91177
Authors: 
Lima, Elcyon Caiado Rocha
Alves, Paloma Palmieri
Year of Publication: 
2011
Series/Report no.: 
Texto para Discussão, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA) 1621
Abstract (Translated): 
The evaluation of forecasts performance of market expectations about the Brazilian inflation rate (Focus survey) is important given the prominent role of these expectations in the conduction of monetary policy in Brazil. Lima e Céspedes (2006) showed that, in the period 2000.1 2005.4, several models had superior forecast ability than the mean of market inflation rate (measured by IPCA) forecasts for horizons superior to three months. In this article, using more recent information, we found no significant evidence that the mean of market forecasts had superior forecast ability than some univariate autoregressive models.
JEL: 
E31
E52
C53
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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