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Erscheinungsjahr: 
2003
Schriftenreihe/Nr.: 
External MPC Unit Discussion Paper No. 12
Verlag: 
Bank of England, External Monetary Policy Committee Unit, London
Zusammenfassung: 
This paper derives alternative measures of the short-run NAIRU (SRN) for the UK, the rate for unemployment at which inflation will neither increase nor decrease in the short-run. We estimate the NAIRU jointly with price equations by using the Kalman filter. Our work suggests that both structural changes in the labour market and favourable supply shocks may have had a beneficial impact on RPIX inflation over the last few years. We show that deviations of unemployment from the short-run NAIRU measures prove helpful in predicting inflation and we demonstrate their usefulness in Taylor-type policy rules for the interest rate.
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper

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