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Hülsewig, Oliver
Mayr, Johannes
Sorbe, Stéphane
Year of Publication: 
Series/Report no.: 
Ifo Working Paper 46
This paper evaluates short-term forecasts of real GDP in the Euro area derived from the CESifo Economic Climate indicator (WES) in terms of forecast accuracy. We compare the forecast properties of the WES with those of monthly composite indicators. Considering the WES is interesting because (i) it is exclusively based on the assessment of economic experts about the current economic situation, and (ii) it is timely released within the quarter on a quarterly basis. The empirical analysis is carried out under full information, which means that the competing monthly indicators are known for the entire quarter, and under incomplete information. Our findings exhibit that the forecast power of the WES is comparatively proper.
CESifo World Economic Survey
business-cycle forecasts
bridge models
out-of-sample forecast evaluation
Document Type: 
Working Paper
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