Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/73162
Authors: 
Berlemann, Michael
Enkelmann, Soeren
Kuhlenkasper, Torben
Year of Publication: 
2013
Series/Report no.: 
University of Lüneburg Working Paper Series in Economics 273
Abstract: 
Empirical studies analyzing the determinants of U.S. presidential popularity have delivered quite inconclusive results concerning the role of economic variables by assuming linear relationships. We employ penalized spline smoothing in the context of semi-parametric additive mixed models and allow for flexible functional forms and thus possible non-linear effects for the economic determinants. By controlling for the well-known politically motivated covariables, we find strong evidence for non-linear and negative effects of unemployment, inflation, and government consumption on presidential approval. Additionally, we present new results in favor of non-parametric trivariate interaction effects between the macroeconomic covariables.
Subjects: 
presidential popularity
macroeconomy
semi-parametric regression
penalized splines
JEL: 
C14
C22
C54
E02
H11
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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