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van den Dam, Rob
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19th ITS Biennial Conference 2012, Bangkok, Thailand, 18 - 21 November 2012: Moving Forward with Future Technologies: Opening a Platform for All
After a decade of meteoric growth, the telecommunications industry now faces mounting challenges, leading to question whether the industry may fall victim of its own success. Dramatic forces are radically changing the telecommunications landscape, and it is not at all clear how it will evolve over the coming years. Giving the ongoing uncertainties, IBM undertook scenario envisioning, that enables the industry to assess alternative contrasting futures distinctly different from the present. The findings are built on an extensive fact base, including face-to-face executive interviews with around 130 telecom providers, over 13,000 consumers surveyed in 25 countries in both developed and developing markets, and extensive secondary research. The analysis identifies four plausible scenarios that might emerge over the coming years, based on the trajectory and interplay of two key uncertainties: future addressable market growth and industry competition/integration structure. The presentation will address: • how the industry has evolved in the last decade • the disruptive forces radically altering the telecommunications landscape • the most likely scenarios for both developed and developing markets • how advances in technology help telecom providers to prepare for the future • how telecommunications stimulate economic development and improve lifestyle for people in both mature and emerging countries
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Conference Paper

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