[Journal:] International Journal of Economic Sciences and Applied Research [ISSN:] 1791-3373 [Volume:] 3 [Year:] 2010 [Issue:] 1 [Pages:] 39-47
Applying an open-economy macroeconomic model, incorporating the monetary policy reaction function and uncovering interest parity, this paper finds that the expected real exchange rate and real output exhibit an inverted J-shape relationship, suggesting that expected real depreciation increases real output during 1999.Q2-2001.Q3 whereas expected real appreciation raises output during 2001.Q4-2009.Q1. Other findings show that a higher real financial stock price, a higher world real interest rate, or a lower expected inflation rate would increase real output. Fiscal prudence may be needed as the coefficient of the government borrowing/GDP ratio is insignificant at the 10% level.
expected real depreciation or appreciation monetary policy reaction function fiscal policy financial stock price uncovered interest parity