DIIS Reports / Danish Institute for International Studies 2011:08
What factors are likely to govern the course of Pakistan's future policy vis-à-vis Afghanistan? This question has increasing relevance for regional security, especially in the light of the imminent endgame in Afghanistan and of the ongoing dialogue with the Taliban. This report probes the implications of the volatile US-Pakistan relationship and of Indo-Pak rivalry in the Af-Pak war theatre, in particular for Pakistan's reliance on militant extremist groups to secure and further its strategic interests. Developments pertaining to the role and engagement of the United States in the region and Indian ties to Afghanistan and the US affect Pakistan's perceived power status in the Indian subcontinent. The extent to which Pakistani interests are met in the process and outcome of brokering a deal with the Taliban is an additional determinant of whether Pakistan will continue with, or veer from, the status quo.