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Autoren: 
Yalcin, Erdal
Datum: 
2007
Reihe/Nr.: 
Tübinger Diskussionsbeiträge 312
Zusammenfassung: 
This paper presents a dynamic framework which implements risk as a continuous variable into the proximity-concentration trade-of concept. Additionally firms have the possibility to postpone their investment decision which gives them the possibility to collect further information about the volatile variable over time. On the basis of the real option theory (Dixit and Pindyck, 1994) an investment plan under uncertainty is derived. In contrast to static models firms postpone their investment decision although positive returns can be achieved. For specific risk values the model predicts, in the presence of a foreign direct investment choice, the export strategy can be rejected although it is dominating the FDI project and although it is worthier than its option value. The results of the model undermine empirical findings which analyze the impact of continuous variables on export and FDI patterns.
Schlagwörter: 
export
FDI
uncertainty
real option approach
JEL: 
D81
D92
F17
F21
F23
F31
Persistent Identifier der Erstveröffentlichung: 
Dokumentart: 
Working Paper
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