Abstract:
Ukraine's EU accession is the most economically complex enlargement in recent EU history. It is unfolding amidst conditions of an active war, large-scale reconstruction needs, and rapid evolution of Ukraine's defence sector. This policy brief examines EU-Ukraine economic integration using Finland as a stress test for plausible outcomes in bilateral trade relations with Ukraine. The fact that Finland is an EU member state without geographic proximity or deep historical ties to Ukraine allows identification of structural, rather than geography-driven, complementarities present across key sectors. The analysis finds strong complementarities in digital services, energy, reconstruction, and defence-industrial cooperation. Notably, none of these complementarities are yet reflected in trade and investment flows, which remain limited and concentrated in low-risk activities. Thus, the challenge for policymakers is translating these identified complementarities into investment at scale under conditions of elevated risk, particularly for SME-led projects in the private sector.
