Abstract:
In Benin, poultry meat is an important protein source, accounting for 30% of total meat consumption, much of which is imported. A poultry processing sector is now emerging to compete with imports. This study uses a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, calibrated to a 2019 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM). Empirically-based simulations are conducted to investigate the effects of promoting domestic poultry processing. The results show that shifting consumer preferences toward locally produced poultry, along with trade restrictions, can reduce imports and boost domestic production. An import ban is more effective than raising import tariffs by 7.5% points (doubling the tariff as suggested by stakeholders) in supporting local production, resulting in 33,000 tons of additional domestic poultry meat production, compared to only 11,000 tons induced by tariffs. Instead, a policy-induced preference shift that redirects 30% of domestic demand towards local production results in about 17,000 tons of additional domestic poultry meat production. This generates pro-poor income gains of up to 3% for the poorest households. The shift also leads to increasing exports. The study suggests that policy-driven shifts in domestic preferences can serve as an alternative or complement to traditional trade restrictions in supporting the development of infant industries. These findings highlight the potential for demand-side measures, such as marketing campaigns and quality standards, to promote agri-food sector growth, regional trade integration, and inclusive rural development under trade-compliant frameworks.
