Abstract:
The study aimed to improve methodological approaches to assessing the effectiveness of investment projects in the Kyrgyz Republic. The study was based on the comparative economic, structural-dynamic, correlation-regression and scenario analysis, as well as methods of content analysis of regulatory acts and financial modelling, including calculations of discounted cash flows, net present value, internal rate of return and payback period. The results showed that in 2024, the total volume of investment in fixed capital increased by 14% compared to 2019, which indicated a gradual recovery of the investment cycle and a transition to a more active phase of capital investment. The highest growth rates were recorded in the energy (+5.8%) and infrastructure (+4.4%) sectors, where there is a steady expansion of the project portfolio and a strengthening of the role of long-term investments. Scenario analysis confirmed the high stability of energy projects amid fluctuations in key macroeconomic indicators, while agricultural and infrastructure initiatives are more sensitive to inflation and currency risks, requiring the use of risk-adjusted valuation methods. At the same time, the structure of funding sources is shifting towards private and mixed capital, reflecting the strengthening of public-private partnership mechanisms and the accelerated digitalisation of the investment process, including the use of online platforms for project registration and monitoring. The econometric model E = f(I, r, σ) showed that a 1% increase in investment increases integral efficiency by 0.63 units, while a 1 p.p. increased in the cost of capital reduces it by 0.27 units, which highlighted the importance of the cost of capital and the structure of financing for the sustainability of investment decisions. The results obtained can be used by government agencies, financial and analytical departments, and consulting structures to improve the processes of evaluation, planning, and control of investment projects.
