Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/339174 
Year of Publication: 
2025
Series/Report no.: 
PIDS Discussion Paper Series No. 2025-49
Publisher: 
Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS), Quezon City
Abstract: 
This study develops a multidimensional Geoeconomic Fragmentation (GEF) Index and applies structural gravity modeling to quantify how rising geopolitical tensions, sanctions, and supplychain disruptions reshape ASEAN and Philippine commodity trade. Using dyad-product-year data (2000-2024), the GEF index integrates political distance, sanctions exposure, tariff barriers, trade intensity, and import volatility. A suite of Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (PPML) models - Including baseline, structural, and bloc-interaction specifications - captures how fragmentation and global shocks (trade war, COVID-19, Russia-Ukraine war, chip and shipping crises) differentially affect trade with China, the EU, the US, and the rest of the world. Results show that fragmentation re-routes rather than reduces trade, generating asymmetric losses across commodities and identifying highly vulnerable export and import lines for ASEAN and the Philippines.
Subjects: 
ASEAN trade
commodity vulnerability
geoeconomic fragmentation
gravity model
international trade
political distance
sanctions
supply-chain shocks
tariff barriers
trade diversion
trade intensity
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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