Zusammenfassung:
This study develops a multidimensional Geoeconomic Fragmentation (GEF) Index and applies structural gravity modeling to quantify how rising geopolitical tensions, sanctions, and supplychain disruptions reshape ASEAN and Philippine commodity trade. Using dyad-product-year data (2000-2024), the GEF index integrates political distance, sanctions exposure, tariff barriers, trade intensity, and import volatility. A suite of Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (PPML) models - Including baseline, structural, and bloc-interaction specifications - captures how fragmentation and global shocks (trade war, COVID-19, Russia-Ukraine war, chip and shipping crises) differentially affect trade with China, the EU, the US, and the rest of the world. Results show that fragmentation re-routes rather than reduces trade, generating asymmetric losses across commodities and identifying highly vulnerable export and import lines for ASEAN and the Philippines.