Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://hdl.handle.net/10419/339163 
Year of Publication: 
2025
Series/Report no.: 
PIDS Discussion Paper Series No. 2025-38
Publisher: 
Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS), Quezon City
Abstract: 
This study investigates the potential of ASEAN to emerge as a global power by evaluating its composite capabilities, strategic positioning, and the multifaceted challenges it faces in an increasingly multipolar world. Using a framework that utilizes Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO)-regularized ordinal logistic regression, the paper quantifies ASEAN's economic, political, cultural, and technological positioning relative to existing global powers. Findings suggest that ASEAN collectively aligns most closely with emerging powers but exhibits statistical tendencies bordering polar status under refined LASSO models. ASEAN centrality enhances its leverage in regional and inter-polar cooperation, particularly in trade, diplomacy, and digital governance. However, internal asymmetries, limited strategic autonomy, and institutional inertia pose barriers to its ascent. Policy implications call for deepened integration, green and digital leadership, and normative assertiveness to sustain ASEAN's trajectory toward polar influence.
Subjects: 
AEC
ASEAN
ASEAN centrality
consensus-building
cooperation
DEFA
digital economy
digital transformation
geopolitics
international relations
institutional framework
multipolarity
norm-entrepreneurial
polarity
power
strategic partnerships
Persistent Identifier of the first edition: 
Document Type: 
Working Paper

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